It’s important to specify a time horizon for your investment—such as short term (7–14 days), medium term (1–2 months) or long-term (6–12 months). I don’t recommend trading on time horizons shorter than 7 days unless you have access to margin (you probably don’t) or have large amounts of money to play with; otherwise, the fees will be too high relative to the returns.
Predictious.com is a betting websites that matches buyers and sellers and doesn’t price the options themselves. Besides betting on bitcoin’s demise or rally, you can also try to predict the next winner of the Oscars or bet on which party win control the US Senate after the 2014 elections. Currently the site takes bitcoin deposits only. Predictious does accept US clients.
More important, Nakamoto built the system to make the blocks themselves more difficult to mine as more computer power flows into the network. That is, as more miners join, or as existing miners buy more servers, or as the servers themselves get faster, the bitcoin network automatically adjusts the solution criteria so that finding those passwords requires proportionately more random guesses, and thus more computing power. These adjustments occur every 10 to 14 days, and are programmed to ensure that bitcoin blocks are mined no faster than one roughly every 10 minutes. The presumed rationale is that by forcing miners to commit more computing power, Nakamoto was making miners more invested in the long-term survival of the network.
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